By Andi Anderson
The 2025 cattle market has started strong, driven by tight supplies. However, four critical questions will shape the market this year.
1. Will heifer retention increase?
Heifer retention has been delayed due to weather, production costs, and interest rates, but favourable market conditions could encourage retention in 2025. If weather cooperates, retention may further tighten cattle supplies, marking the first step toward rebuilding the cow herd, currently at its lowest in over 60 years.
2. Can slaughter weights rise further?
While forecasts predict lower beef production due to declining cattle numbers, increased slaughter weights in 2024 offset reduced female harvests. With similar factors like tight supplies, high beef prices, and low feed costs in play, it remains uncertain whether weights can rise further. This trend will be closely monitored.
3. Will competing meat production grow?
Lower feed prices often boost production across livestock species, impacting beef prices. Pork and poultry production, which can expand more quickly than cattle, are key competitors in the meat market. Monitoring production growth in these sectors will be crucial.
4. How will trade policies affect the market?
Trade remains a major factor in the cattle market. While beef exports declined due to tight domestic supplies, the U.S. exported 11% of its production in 2024. Changes in trade policies, retaliatory tariffs, and trading relationships with key partners like Mexico, Canada, Japan, and South Korea could significantly influence the market.
The 2025 cattle market’s trajectory will depend on these factors, with tight supplies and weather conditions playing critical roles. Stakeholders must stay informed and adaptable to navigate the year ahead.
Photo Credit: gettyimages-ahavelaar
Categories: Ohio, Business