By Andi Anderson
The US beef balance of trade has shifted to net imports in 2023, as production declines and prices rise. Exports are down 14% through August, while imports are up 5%. This trend is likely to continue in the next few years, as the calf crop is smaller than last year and beef cow inventory is expected to decline.
The decline in exports is largely due to lower production levels. For the first two quarters of 2023, beef production was about 4% lower than 2022. With lower production levels, a larger share of US production is being consumed domestically. Additionally, high price levels are making imports of US beef less attractive in many countries. For example, exports to our three largest destinations (South Korea, Japan, and China) are all down sharply so far this year.
The increase in imports is also being driven by supply fundamentals. The US imports lean trim beef primarily from Australia, New Zealand, and Uruguay. These markets have seen increased production in recent years, which has helped to keep import prices relatively low.
The shift to net imports is a significant change for the US beef industry. In 2022, the US was a slight net exporter of beef. However, with production expected to continue to decline in the next few years, the US is likely to remain a net importer for the foreseeable future.
The shift to net imports has a number of implications for the US beef industry. First, it is likely to lead to higher prices for consumers. With less domestic beef available, prices will need to rise in order to attract imports and ration the remaining supply.
Second, the shift to net imports could have a negative impact on US beef producers. With lower exports and higher imports, producers will face increased competition and lower prices.
Third, the shift to net imports could have a positive impact on US beef consumers. With more imported beef available, consumers will have a wider range of choices and potentially lower prices.
The shift to net imports is a significant change for the US beef industry. It is likely to have a number of implications for both producers and consumers.
Photo Credit: beef-cows-gettyimages-erdinhasdemir
Categories: Ohio, Livestock, Beef Cattle