By Andi Anderson
The U.S. cattle industry received significant updates recently with the release of the USDA's July 1 Cattle Inventory and Cattle on Feed reports, followed by the announcement of a phased reopening of cattle imports from Mexico. Together, these developments provide important insights into cattle supplies, herd rebuilding efforts, and future market trends.
The July 1 Cattle Inventory report showed that all cattle and calves in the United States totaled 94.2 million head, slightly higher than the previous year. However, the beef cow inventory declined by 1% to 28.45 million head, marking the lowest July 1 level recorded since 1973. The first estimate of the 2026 calf crop was 32.5 million head, a decline of 1.5% from the previous year and the smallest calf crop reported since 1941. Calves born during the first half of the year also fell by nearly 2%, indicating that feeder cattle supplies continue to tighten.
One area showing a modest increase was replacement heifers. The July estimate reached 3.8 million head, up 3% from a year earlier. This was the first year-over-year increase in replacement heifers since 2015. While the rise suggests that some producers are retaining heifers for future breeding, the number remains historically low and does not yet indicate significant herd expansion.
The USDA's Cattle on Feed report presented another important trend. Feedlots with capacities of 1,000 head or more held 11.4 million cattle on July 1, an increase of 2% from last year. Although larger feedlot inventories may appear inconsistent with declining calf numbers, feedlots are keeping cattle longer and marketing them at heavier weights. This approach helps increase beef production from a smaller cattle supply.
June placements totaled 1.4 million head, down 3% from the previous year and below market expectations. Marketings during June were also down 3%, reaching the lowest June level recorded since the reporting series began in 1996.
The report also highlighted shifts in feedlot inventories. Heifers and heifer calves on feed remained nearly unchanged at 4.25 million head, while steers increased by 3% to 7.12 million head. As a result, the share of heifers in feedlots declined for the second consecutive year. Although this trend suggests gradual changes in herd management, current levels remain above those typically associated with aggressive herd rebuilding.
Another significant development was the USDA's announcement that cattle imports from Mexico will resume in phases. The first reopening is scheduled at the Douglas, Arizona port beginning August 24, with additional ports potentially reopening later. Before trade disruptions caused by New World screwworm concerns, Mexican cattle accounted for an estimated 5% of U.S. feedlot placements. The return of imports could help ease feeder cattle shortages, particularly in the Southern Plains.
Overall, the latest reports suggest that cattle supplies remain historically tight, herd expansion is progressing slowly, and market participants will closely monitor the impact of resumed cattle imports on feeder supplies and prices in the months ahead.
Photo Credit: gettyimages-ahavelaar
Categories: Ohio, Livestock