By Andi Anderson
Recent USDA Agricultural Marketing Service data reveals a continued decline in feeder and stocker cattle receipts, suggesting tighter supplies across the U.S. cattle industry.
From January through August 2025, weekly receipts averaged 255,941 head, which is 7.6 percent lower than the same period in 2024 and 10 percent below the 2020–2023 average.
A closer look at the National Feeder and Stocker Cattle Summary shows that using a 48-week moving average helps smooth week-to-week fluctuations. For example, the latest data point for the week of August 22, 2025, reflects sales from September 2024 through August 2025. This approach highlights long-term trends rather than short-term swings.
One important measure is the share of heifers in total sales. Historically, declines in heifer sales can indicate retention for breeding. The charted data show a sharp drop in heifer share from 2014 to 2018, followed by a rebound as producers expanded herds. A smaller dip appeared in 2020 and 2021 due to pandemic disruptions.
More recently, the percentage of heifers sold has edged lower in 2024 and 2025. While this could signal increased heifer retention, analysts caution that current levels are closer to 2011–2013, a period of herd contraction, rather than the rapid expansion seen from 2014–2016.
Another notable pattern is the low point in overall steer and heifer receipts during fall 2015. Current data show the weekly average of steer sales has fallen below that 2015 low since early 2024, though heifer sales remain slightly higher than that historic bottom.
Although the USDA series does not capture every feeder or stocker transaction—reporting 13.6 million head in 2024 compared to a 33.5 million head calf crop—it remains a valuable indicator of market direction.
Producers and market watchers are advised to monitor the heifer share of receipts closely, as it will provide key clues about future herd rebuilding and price movements in an increasingly tight cattle market.
Photo Credit: usda
Categories: Ohio, General