Now that grain markets have roared higher on spreading drought across much of the 18 important corn and soybean states, prices have become choppy on any idea we will get rain.
Last week, both July and December corn futures actually lost a little over nine cents as late-week weather forecasts predicted good coverage of scattered rain over much of the Midwest. This followed a week when most areas got a little, but all of the farmers were worried.
If we take a look back, we have seen September corn futures (we will switch our cash bean basis to September futures this week) trade a low of $4.92 1/4 on May 17 and a high of $46.24 3/4 June 21. That is a recent range of $1.32 1/2.
In a similar time, the November soybeans (cash buyers are using September and November futures now for basis) went from a low of $11.30 1/2 May 31 to a high of $13.78 June 21, a range of $2.45 1/2.
Given the recent prices, it would be easy to say they were too cheap a few weeks ago, but it remains to be seen if we are looking at a good price now. If timely rains continue, the party is over. If we get dry in some areas for a week at a time, we have room to move up.
Ohio crops
I had a long talk with a Knox County reader this morning, and I reminded him that even in the Big One in 1988, the party was over when it rained, if I remember the date right, on July 3.
Normally, even in drought markets, we see corn highs in June, and June is about over when you read this. The crop can get worse, but the market goes up on premature fear.
That Knox County farmer said his corn was not knee-high yet, which is short for him. On the good farms in Northeast Ohio, it has been knee-high for a week, but it is not growing fast.
I am told some soybeans have brown spots in the fields, and as far as I know, this is not from disease, but from poor emergence in powder conditions. The corn roots are still going down, looking for moisture. The beans are trying to live in the first inch or two.
Source: farmanddairy.com
Photo Credit: gettyimages-ygrek
Categories: Ohio, Crops