By Andi Anderson
Recent USDA reports reveal that beef heifer retention remains at notably low levels, signaling limited herd expansion for the near future. In July’s Cattle-on-Feed report, heifers accounted for 38.1% of on-feed inventory, showing no sign of widespread retention.
The mid-year cattle inventory report estimated 3.7 million heifers held for beef cow replacement—100,000 fewer than in July 2023.
When viewed as a percentage of total beef cow inventory, replacement heifers made up just 12.9% as of July 1. This is the smallest share recorded since the mid-year dataset began in 1973.
Historically, a higher percentage indicates likely herd growth, while a lower percentage suggests contraction or stagnation.
While heifer development plans can shift—some intended replacements may be culled, and some non-replacements may be bred—beef cow slaughter is a more certain factor. Once a cow is processed, it permanently reduces the herd.
In the first half of 2025, beef cow slaughter fell more than 17% compared to the same period in 2024. If this pace holds, roughly 500,000 fewer beef cows will be slaughtered by year’s end. This trend suggests producers are holding onto more cows while selling heifer calves.
However, strong cull cow prices could encourage more producers to send animals to slaughter before the year ends. Since most cow-calf operations calve in spring and wean in fall, the remainder of 2025 will be critical for determining final slaughter numbers.
Based on current trends, only a slight increase in beef cow inventory is expected at the start of 2026. The scale of that increase will depend largely on how aggressively beef cow slaughter rates change in the coming months.
Photo Credit: gettyimages-baranozdemir
Categories: Ohio, Livestock, Beef Cattle