Beef Price Trends Show Potential for Seasonal Decline

By Andi Anderson

The recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which showed retail beef prices hitting new record highs, has sparked many questions about when consumers can expect lower prices.

While tighter beef supplies and strong consumer demand are driving prices up, beef prices—particularly for different cuts—tend to follow seasonal market trends that suggest a decline could be on the horizon.

One of the most notable cuts in the beef industry is ribeye steaks, which experience a seasonal pattern. Prices tend to peak with the start of the grilling season, but they often decline after Memorial Day.

They typically reach their highest price in late fall during the holiday season. This year, ribeye prices hit an all-time high of $14.18 per pound in May, a $5.09 increase from last year. Since then, prices have fallen to $10.50 per pound, which remains slightly higher than last year.

On the other hand, loin strips see their peak prices ahead of the July 4th holiday. In June, wholesale prices peaked at $11.84 per pound, but have since decreased to $9.68 per pound.

Although the price remains higher than last year, it is coming down, following the typical seasonal trend.

Ground beef, which hit a new record high retail price in the CPI data for June, has also seen continued price increases at the wholesale level for 90% and 50% lean beef into July. However, the 50% lean price saw a slight decline from $2.62 to $2.57 per pound last week.

This drop is partly due to a reduction in fed beef supplies, stemming from declining slaughter rates and lower weights as the year progresses. Typically, boneless beef prices begin to fall after mid-year, following the peak grilling season.

The Choice boxed beef cutout, which represents the wholesale value of beef, has been decreasing since it reached a record high of $394 per cwt about four weeks ago. The prices of all the primal cuts that make up the boxed beef cutout have also started to decline.

So, there is some potential for relief from record high beef prices, especially when comparing current prices to recent weeks. Seasonal price patterns indicate that beef prices may continue to fall in the coming months.

However, it is unlikely that prices will fall below last year’s levels, given ongoing tight supplies and strong consumer demand for beef.

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