By Jamie Martin
The rapid rise of renewable diesel has triggered major shifts in the U.S. soybean complex, redefining the relationships between soybeans, oil, and meal. Soybean oil, once a secondary product, now plays a leading role in determining crush value and price trends.
Analysts from recent Farmdoc studies found that U.S. soybean processors have improved extraction efficiency, allowing more oil to be produced from each bushel. This efficiency gain supported renewable diesel production during periods when crushing capacity could not expand quickly. As a result, oil prices have climbed sharply, while soybean and meal values have not kept pace.
Between late 2020 and 2025, soybean oil’s share of total crush value increased from an average of 30% to nearly 50%, illustrating a structural market change. Crush margins, once stable, have become highly volatile, with sharp swings in response to policy changes and demand shifts.
Regression analyses show the correlation between soybean, meal, and oil prices—once strong—has weakened considerably. This means that price changes in one component no longer predict changes in others as they once did.
Experts believe these developments reflect growing domestic biofuel demand and uncertain renewable fuel policies. “Old pricing models are no longer reliable,” researchers explained. “The market must adapt to new dynamics shaped by biofuel expansion.”
As renewable diesel continues to grow, soybean processors, traders, and farmers are entering an era of greater price uncertainty and shifting value structures within the soybean crush.
Photo Credit: istock-urpspoteko
Categories: National