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U.S. Dairy Trade Grows Amid Global Uncertainty

U.S. Dairy Trade Grows Amid Global Uncertainty


By Jamie Martin

In early 2025, U.S. dairy exports surged past $3 billion, outpacing imports by over $1 billion. This achievement stands out amid a larger $20 billion U.S. agricultural trade deficit during the first four months of the year.

While this growth highlights the strength of American dairy, it also shows the sector’s reliance on global markets.

The U.S. exported dairy products to 114 countries and the EU in 2024, with Mexico, Canada, and China accounting for over half of total exports.

Cheese led exports, valued at $2.4 billion, followed by nonfat dry milk and powdered dairy ingredients like lactose. Over 16% of U.S. milk production is exported, with most fluid milk, cheese, and butter consumed domestically.

Trade relationships remain fragile. Mexico remains a top customer, but tariffs announced under IEEPA in 2025 triggered concerns despite most agricultural products being exempt.

Canada, the second-largest buyer, limits imports using tariffs and supply management. U.S. dairy access promised under USMCA is hindered by Canadian practices, leading to calls for better enforcement.

China is a key buyer of dairy coproducts like whey and lactose. However, retaliatory tariffs raised costs and reduced demand, with temporary relief coming from a 90-day tariff reduction agreement in May 2025.

The EU continues to impose high tariffs and strict sanitary rules. The use of geographical indications to block common cheese names also restricts U.S. market access.

India remains one of the most closed markets, with high tariffs and cultural-based restrictions on feed practices blocking U.S. dairy entry.

Emerging markets in Southeast Asia, like Indonesia and Vietnam, offer promise but are slowed by facility approval barriers and complex registration rules.

“The food production methods in our two countries have more in common than what separates us,” reflects the broader need for stronger trade relationships.

To maintain growth, U.S. dairy must keep global trade open, fair, and efficient. Exports are vital, and navigating trade disputes will shape the industry’s future.

Photo Credit: visionphotodisc-photo


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