Cattle Markets Face Volatility Amid Beef Import Policy Debate

By Andi Anderson

Cattle markets have experienced significant price swings in recent weeks, driven by speculation over policy changes to beef and cattle imports. Industry experts say that while short-term futures have declined sharply, the long-term fundamentals of the U.S. beef industry remain solid.

Over a 12-day period, Feeder and Live Cattle futures dropped sharply, with December Live Cattle contracts falling from $247.88 per cwt to $224, and November Feeder Cattle contracts dropping from $380.95 per cwt to below $339. Analysts link this volatility to policy uncertainty surrounding beef import discussions and international trade developments.

The downturn began after an announcement suggesting a plan to lower beef prices by expanding Argentina beef imports. The proposal would raise Argentina’s Tariff Rate Quota (TRQ) from 20,000 to 80,000 metric tons, sparking concern across the livestock sector. However, economists note the change would represent less than 1% of total U.S. beef consumption, meaning minimal real impact on domestic prices.

The U.S. already imports high levels of lean manufacturing beef, primarily used in ground beef production, which does not directly compete with premium grain-fed U.S. beef. This distinction limits the likelihood of severe market disruption.

Additional pressure came from reports of potential U.S.-Mexico negotiations to reopen the border for live cattle imports. The border was closed in late 2024 after the detection of New World Screwworm in Mexico. Even if reopened, experts expect a gradual process with limited imports, reducing the chance of a market shock.

Despite recent volatility, analysts such as Dr. James Mitchell, Dr. Kenny Burdine, and Dr. Josh Maples emphasize that market fundamentals remain strong. Tight cattle supplies, limited herd rebuilding, and ongoing beef demand continue to support long-term prices.

While cash cattle prices dipped 1–3% last week, the decline aligns with seasonal patterns. Experts caution producers to remain alert and use price risk management tools as markets adjust to evolving trade and policy developments.

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