By Jamie Martin
Global fertilizer markets are shifting into a downturn as rising input costs reduce affordability and weaken demand. A recent RaboResearch report notes that fertilizer prices climbed by nearly 15% between April and September 2025, with phosphates jumping 19%.
This surge pushed the phosphate index to its lowest point in 15 years, while the nitrogen index also declined and is expected to drop further in 2026. The affordability index continues to fall, signalling more challenges ahead for global farmers. “The 12-month moving average is nearing levels last seen in 2022,” explained Bruno Fonseca, Senior Analyst – Farm Inputs at RaboResearch.
Meanwhile, global agricultural production remains strong. Record harvests of corn, wheat, and soybeans in 2025 have led to abundant supplies that keep commodity prices low. Even though consumption remains high, market oversupply limits profitability for grain and oilseed producers, making fertilizer less affordable.
Adding to these pressures, the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will soon affect fertilizer imports. Beginning in 2026, it will apply a carbon tax on about 15 million metric tons of nitrogen fertilizers annually. This will particularly impact high-emission ammonia and urea imports.
To manage rising costs, importers are turning to verified low-emission suppliers and adopting hedging strategies to balance price fluctuations. However, these adjustments may not fully offset higher costs, leading to reduced fertilizer use and careful planning among farmers in 2026.
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Categories: National