By Andi Anderson
The USDA’s October Cattle on Feed Report shows that heifers make up nearly 40% of the cattle on feed, signaling limited intentions by producers to retain heifers as herd replacements.
For a robust herd rebuild, this figure would need to drop to about 36-37%, a level last seen in 2018. As attention shifts to the replacement female market, cattle producers are focusing on bred female prices as a key indicator of future herd expansion.
Data compiled by the University of Wyoming, using the Livestock Marketing Information Center, provides insights into replacement female prices for bred heifers, young cows (2-4 years), middle-aged cows (5-8 years), and old cows (over 8 years).
This data spans from 2013 to 2024, with recent emphasis on October prices from 2023 and 2024. In October 2024, prices increased across all regions and categories compared to the previous year, with the highest increase (46%) for old bred cows in the Southeast and the smallest (5%) for young cows in the North Central region.
Despite the price hike, the overall volume of replacement cattle sales decreased by 6.61% in 2024 compared to 2023, reflecting a general reduction in the national cow herd.
Regionally, North Central and Southeast sale volumes declined by 4% and 16%, respectively, while South-Central volumes surged by 124%, indicating herd liquidations likely driven by drought in the area.
These trends suggest that while bred cow prices have risen, it is likely due to supply factors rather than increased demand for replacement females.
Producers considering replacement purchases should account for factors such as expected feeder prices, cow longevity, and costs to determine the value of replacements.
In the coming years, market conditions will shape replacement female prices, potentially influencing herd rebuilding efforts as cattle producers navigate the current cow cycle.
Photo Credit: usda
Categories: Ohio, Livestock