October Outlook Includes Some Rain
By: Jim Noel, Ohio State University Extension - 10/10/2017
September ended warmer and drier across Ohio for the most part. But it was the tail of two months. The first half of September was 5-10 degrees below normal and the second half of the month was 10-15 degrees above normal.
For October, we expect slightly warmer than normal conditions. Confidence is rather high on the temperature outlook. As for rainfall, more and more weather and climate models indicate above normal rainfall but confidence is low on this. Therefore, we expect
near normal to slightly below normal rainfall until we see rain on the ground. The good news for wheat planting is there should at least be some rain between Oct. 4-10. If we do not get it then it might not be until almost early November before we turn wetter so
let's hope for some rain in the next week.
The week of Oct. 3-8 [saw] above normal temperatures, no frost or freeze conditions and rain chances. Rainfall [was] average 0-0.50 inches southeast half of Ohio and 0.50 to 1.00 in northwest half with isolated 1+ inch total north and west areas.
The week of Oct 9-15 will turn normal to cooler than normal with drier weather returning starting Oct. 10.
The second half of the month will feature a return to above normal temperatures with below normal rainfall.
Early indications are November will be a warmer month with conditions turning wetter especially in the north half of the state. The south half may stay at or below normal rainfall.
There is some risk for a minor frost and freeze about the middle of the month between Oct. 10-20. If we do not see it then, it may wait until almost the end of the month then.
The two week NOAA/NWS/OHRFC rainfall total can be seen on the attached graphic.