May Cattle on Feed Report Reveals Key Trends

By Andi Anderson

The National Agricultural Statistics Service released its May 2025 Cattle on Feed report, offering insights into current market conditions and long-term cattle trends.

As of May 1, 11.38 million head of cattle were on feed in U.S. feedlots with 1,000 or more capacity. This is a 1.5% decline compared to the same time last year.

April placements totaled 1.61 million head, down 2.6%, while marketings reached 1.83 million head, a 2.5% decrease. These figures were all within expected ranges. However, several ongoing developments add depth to the outlook.

First, dressed weights continue to trend higher than expected. In 2024, they averaged 27 pounds more than in 2023, pushing USDA to raise its beef production estimates.

That pattern has continued into 2025, with dressed weights averaging 875 pounds — 23 pounds heavier than the same period last year. This trend has caused USDA to adjust its 2025 beef production forecast, reducing the expected decline from 4% to 2%.

Drought remains a second major concern. Over 25% of the U.S. cattle inventory is in drought-affected regions. April placements showed mixed results by state — up in Kansas and Oklahoma but down in Texas. The impact of drought on feedlot operations and herd rebuilding will be important to monitor.

A third issue, not yet fully reflected in the May report, involves a renewed restriction on cattle imports from Mexico due to concerns about New World screwworm. These imports make up around 4% of annual placements, so any trade disruption may influence feedlot operations in the coming months.

While this report included no major surprises, it confirms that dressed weights are offsetting tighter supplies. Still, the future of herd rebuilding will depend on weather patterns, market demand, and regulatory developments.

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