By Jamie Martin
The U.S. Department of Agriculture has issued its first World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates outlook for the 2026–2027 crop year, projecting a sharp decline in U.S. wheat production.
Total wheat output is expected to decline to nearly 1.6 billion bushels, over 20% lower than last year. Winter wheat production alone is forecast to drop by 25% due to reduced acreage, weaker yields, and drought in key growing regions.
According to USDA, farmers are reducing wheat planting as they face rising fertilizer and fuel costs along with uncertain global markets. Wheat grower leaders stress the need for strong farm policy support to stabilize production and encourage long-term investments in agriculture.
“Unfortunately, U.S. wheat growers are not surprised by this report. Across the country, farmers continue to face stubbornly high input costs, ongoing uncertainty in global markets, and the continual challenge of achieving profitability on the farm. As a result, many farmers are making difficult decisions to plant fewer wheat acres. In addition, much of wheat country is experiencing significant drought,” said National Association of Wheat Growers (NAWG) CEO Sam Kieffer.
Lower production is expected to reduce wheat exports and domestic use while pushing ending stocks down. As supplies tighten, the average farm price for wheat is forecast to rise to $6.50 per bushel.
Global wheat production is also projected lower, with major exporters including the United States, European Union, Argentina, and Australia contributing to the decline. World wheat trade and ending stocks are expected to shrink accordingly.
The report also covers other commodities. U.S. corn production is forecast lower with higher prices, while rice production is expected to decline on reduced harvested area. In contrast, soybean production is projected to grow due to higher acreage and strong demand, especially from the biofuel sector.
Overall, the USDA outlook points to tighter global grain supplies, higher prices for several crops, and continued pressure on farmers from weather challenges and input costs.
Photo Credit: gettyimages-ianchrisgraham
Categories: National